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Glossary entry · Trade-offs

Recency bias

Definition

A cognitive bias where recent events feel more representative of the future than they actually are. After a crash, every bear market headline feels like the start of a longer collapse; after a rally, the gains feel sustainable indefinitely. Recency bias drives investors to sell at lows ("this will keep falling") and buy at highs ("this will keep rising"). It's why a written, long-horizon plan beats reacting to the news.

Example

In March 2009, investors who extrapolated the recent freefall expected the S&P 500 to keep dropping. It bottomed that month and roughly tripled over the next decade.